(TC) Deadpool 3: Will Deadpool & Wolverine might be a billion dollar blockbuster ?

Merc with a Mouth meets Canucklehead – the onscreen pairing we never knew we needed is finally upon us.

Deadpool 3, slated for release this year, marks the highly anticipated arrival of Ryan Reynolds’ wisecracking Deadpool within the hallowed halls of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU):

“‘Suck it Fox, I’m going to Disneyland. Get [f***ed],” Reynolds said [in] character during the sizzle reel. He alludes to the former 20th Century Fox studio which made the first two Deadpool films, which later became Disney’s when they acquired the 20th Century assets in 2019.

“There were also references to cocaine use (‘The only thing Feige said was off limits!’ Deadpool said in the footage, which often breaks the fourth wall) and a security force mistaken for exotic dancers at a surprise birthday party for Reynolds (‘I’m not new to pegging,’ Deadpool tells a group of goons wielding batons, ‘but Disney is. And this isn’t Pretty Woman. We’re kissing’).”

The film will serve as a sequel to Deadpool 2, which grossed over $786 million worldwide, and it is expected to premiere on July 26th.

Armed with chimichangas, fourth-wall breaks, and the claws of everyone’s favorite adamantium-laced mutant (Wolverine), Deadpool 3 is poised to be a blockbuster sensation.

Things haven’t exactly been great for the superhero genre in the post-pandemic era. With only a handful of successful exceptions, most Marvel and DC movies flopped historically badly at the box office, with many claiming superhero fatigue is to blame.

Still, Deadpool 3 is expected to be a smash hit, in part because it is slated to be the only MCU movie released in 2024. On February 11th, during Super Bowl LVIII, the first official trailer for Deadpool 3 dropped, setting the internet ablaze.

Within 24 hours, the Deadpool 3 trailer racked up over 356 million views on YouTube, breaking the record for the most-viewed movie trailer and heightening the film’s already immense buzz.

The trailer not only confirmed the official title – Deadpool & Wolverine – but also displayed the Merc’s hilarious interactions with the Time Variance Authority (TVA), hinting at a multiversal adventure that could shake the very foundations of the MCU.

This, coupled with the sensational return of Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine, raises a box office question: will this explosive cocktail of superhero mayhem mint billions at the box office?

The Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Influence

While the question of Deadpool 3 reaching a billion-dollar milestone has yet to be answered, the outsized influence of the MCU cannot be ignored.

The two previous Deadpool movies, along with the entire X-Men franchise, were owned and released by Fox before Disney’s $71.3 billion acquisition of the studio in 2019.

The first three MCU phases were box office behemoths, grossing an unprecedented $26 billion collectively for a franchise. But recently, even this juggernaut has faced challenges.

Films like Thor: Love And Thunder and The Marvels, which grossed an underwhelming $206 million, underperformed compared to predecessors, sparking concerns about potential superhero fatigue:

However, Deadpool 3 arrives poised to inject a much-needed “jolt,” as X-Men: First Class director Matthew Vaughn puts it, potentially “saving the whole Marvel Universe.”

Several factors support this optimism.

First, the MCU brand itself remains incredibly powerful, boasting a dedicated fan base eager to see its beloved characters interact.

Integrating Deadpool, known for breaking the fourth wall and his irreverent humor, into this familiar world presents a refreshing twist and could entice even skeptical viewers.

Second, the inclusion of Wolverine, a character deeply ingrained in superhero lore thanks to Jackman’s iconic portrayal, further broadens the film’s appeal.

Fans yearning for his return will flock to theaters, adding a significant boost to viewership.

Finally, there’s the inherent synergy between Deadpool and the MCU. While Deadpool 3 might be R-rated, the character’s self-aware humor and meta-references perfectly align with the MCU’s recent exploration of the multiverse and its penchant for humor.

This playful approach could bridge the gap between the established MCU audience and newcomers unfamiliar with Deadpool’s universe. Whether “The Marvel Jesus” truly “saves the Marvel Universe” in his third coming is yet to be seen.

Still, its connection to the MCU’s legacy and brand recognition undoubtedly places it in a prime position to succeed.

This unorthodox superhero team-up has the potential to not only revive the box office but also redefine the boundaries of the MCU, proving that even a foul-mouthed mercenary can find redemption and success within the shared superhero universe.

Ryan Reynolds’ And Hugh Jackman’s Star Power

Another crucial element driving Deadpool 3 towards potential billion-dollar territory is the undeniable star power of its leading duo: Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman.

Reynolds is the creative force behind the Deadpool franchise, and the one responsible for bringing the Merc with a Mouth to life on the big screen.

His relentless passion for the character translated into two commercially and critically acclaimed Deadpool films.

This established fanbase eagerly awaits Deadpool 3, fueled by Reynolds’ trademark wit and comedic timing, ensuring a strong opening weekend and dedicated viewership throughout the film’s run.

The first Deadpool movie grossed over $132.4 million on its opening weekend, breaking 2003’s The Matrix Reloaded’s record of having the highest opening weekend for an R-rated movie.

The sequel set the record for the highest opening for a 20th Century Fox film, grossing $125.5 million in the traditional three-day weekend.

Alongside Reynolds stands the iconic return of Hugh Jackman as Wolverine. After retiring the claws following the character’s emotional death in Logan, convincing Jackman to return was no easy feat.

This monumental decision speaks volumes about the script’s potential and the undeniable draw of the project. Jackman’s portrayal of Wolverine remains etched in fans’ memories, and his return guarantees a significant portion of the box office pie.

His dedicated fanbase, combined with the curiosity of those unfamiliar with his previous work, will undoubtedly lead to packed theaters and increased revenue.

Together, Reynolds and Jackman represent a unique combination of established star power and captivating characters. Their on-screen chemistry, hinted at in the trailer, promises not only entertainment but also an emotional resonance that could pull in both existing fans and newcomers.

This star powered duo, coupled with strong brand recognition of both Deadpool and Wolverine, creates a box office formula with the potential to reach staggering heights.

The R-Rated Factor: Friend, Or Foe?

The elephant in the room, however, is Deadpool 3’s R-rating.

Deadpool 3 inherits the franchise’s trademark adult humor and violence, potentially limiting its audience reach compared to the commonplace PG-13 MCU fare.

Historically, R-rated superhero films have faced challenges.

While Deadpool and Deadpool 2 defied expectations with their gross earnings, their $58 million and $110 million budgets allowed for greater flexibility compared to a potential blockbuster aiming for a billion.

Looking beyond the Deadpool franchise, other R-rated superhero movies paint a mixed picture. Joker broke the mold, surpassing a billion, but films like Logan, which grossed $619 million worldwide, and The Batman ($770 million), fell short.

While these numbers are impressive, they demonstrate the potential ceiling for R-rated superhero films compared to their PG-13 counterparts, like Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.9 billion) and Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness ($955 million).

However, there are – again – reasons to be optimistic about Deadpool & Wolverine.

First, the MCU itself has shown adaptability with respect to R-rated content on its streaming service, Disney+. This suggests a potential willingness to experiment with a wider range of ratings for Deadpool 3 within the MCU framework.

Second, recent audience trends indicate a continued appetite for mature content.

R-rated films like Top Gun: Maverick, which crossed the billion dollar mark ($1.3 billion), and Oppenheimer ($959 million), thrived at the box office, suggesting adult-only content can in fact go for the big B.

Ultimately, the R-rating remains a double-edged sword.

While it might limit access to younger demographics, it could also attract adult audiences seeking a different superhero experience. Whether this trade-off proves beneficial for Deadpool 3’s billion-dollar aspirations remains to be seen.

The success of the film’s marketing campaign and its ability to appeal to both existing fans and curious newcomers will be crucial in determining if the R-rating ultimately acts as a friend or foe at the box office.

Minting Billions? The Verdict…

Predicting the box office performance of any film is an uncertain endeavor, and Deadpool 3 is no exception.

Its R-rating, while potentially limiting, could be mitigated by the MCU’s vast reach and Deadpool’s established popularity. Furthermore, the novelty of Wolverine’s return and the film’s potential cultural impact add intrigue.

The first Deadpool film, released in 2016 with an R-rating, defied expectations, raking in $783 million worldwide against a $58 million budget.

This R-rated success story shattered records, becoming the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever at the time. The sequel, Deadpool 2, upped the ante, grossing $785 million globally on a slightly higher budget of $110 million.

While falling short of its predecessor in profit, Deadpool 2 further confirmed the character’s popularity and box office potential.

However, the X-Men franchise, to which Deadpool previously belonged, boasts a more mixed box office history.

While early entries like X-Men and X2: X-Men United were critical and commercial successes, later installments saw diminishing returns. X-Men: Apocalypse underwhelmed, grossing $543 million against a $250 million budget.

The critically acclaimed Logan fared better, earning $619 million globally, but its somber tone and R-rating limited its potential audience.

Ultimately, Deadpool 3 presents a unique blend of familiar faces, beloved characters, and an unconventional approach within the established MCU framework.

However, if Deadpool 3’s trailer views are a reliable bellwether, Deadpool & Wolverine looks to be destined for “summer smash” status.

Whether it mints billions or not, one thing’s for sure: this blockbuster showdown has the potential to be a box-office beast, and to shape the uncertain future of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.