Predicting the 2024 NBA Award Winners

With a month remaining in the 2023-24 NBA season, here are our predictions for the NBA’s end-of-season awards, including an upset in the MVP race.

HIGHLIGHTS

 MVP Prediction: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could edge out Jokić and Dončić for his first MVP win.
 DPOY Prediction: Rudy Gobert is favored to secure his fourth DPOY award.
 ROTY Prediction: Victor Wembanyama seems to be the clear favorite for the Rookie of the Year award.

Another NBA season is about to come to a close with just about a month to go in the regular season. Certainly, the 2023-24 version has given basketball fans all over the globe plenty of epic highlights and performances throughout the campaign.

The level of talent in the NBA is probably at its highest. International stars are taking over with the likes of Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Dončić all vying for the title of best player in the world. While a new crop of stars are ready to stake their claims as the top guys in the league, “old heads” like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant aren’t just about to give up their standing within the NBA landscape.

Nonetheless, this new generation is hungry to prove that the future is now. Nothing indicates that more than the heated race in the various NBA awards this 2023-24 season. With around a month remaining in what has been a terrific 2023-24 NBA regular season, here are our predictions on how each of the major NBA awards will turn out.

Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Oklahoma City Thunder

Runners-up: Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) and Luka Dončić (Dallas Mavericks)

Picking a winner for MVP has become quite a tedious task over the last couple of years and this season is no different. There really is no set criteria for determining who deserves to take home the Michael Jordan trophy. But in this year’s case, voters might just go with the fresh face in this year’s race and that is Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will deny Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić his third NBA MVP award and get one before Dallas Mavericks sensation Luka Dončić.

As historical a campaign Jokic is putting up once again, he could unfortunately be the victim of voter’s fatigue. With Jokić already having two in his trophy case, they might opt to give the award to a first-time winner in Gilgeous-Alexander, much like they did last season with Joel Embiid. As for Dončić, Dallas’ lack of team success compared to OKC and Denver will hurt his chances of winning his first MVP award.

MVP Finalists Stats Comparison

Category
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Nikola Jokić
Luka Dončić

PPG
30.9
25.9
34.4

RPG
5.7
12.2
9.0

APG
6.3
9.1
9.7

EFG%
57.7
60.9
57.6

PIE
19.1
21.1
20.2

Team Record
47-20
47-21
39-29

The “narrative” — whatever that means — also plays a huge part in the MVP voting. From a narrative standpoint, giving the MVP to a first-time winner who is leading an improbable contender seems like the more intriguing angle over a two-time winner who just led his team to the NBA championship.

Nonetheless, this shouldn’t discredit the fact that Gilgeous-Alexander is well-deserving of MVP. The budding superstar has the Thunder vying for the top spot in the bloodbath that is the Western Conference. Jokic has Denver in the same position as well. However, in SGA’s case, not many would have predicted Oklahoma City, which began the season as the second-youngest team in the NBA, to be among the top teams in the NBA. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were fully expected to be atop the conference after coming off a championship.

Oklahoma City’s success this season is in large part due to Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-level play. His craftiness and creativity have turned him into one of the best scorers in the NBA — and even perhaps the best in a Thunder franchise that includes Kevin Durant. Gilgeous-Alexander just surpassed Durant for having the most 30-point games in franchise history. On the season, he is averaging 30.9 points on 54.4 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from beyond the arc. Likewise, his uncanny ability to get to the free-throw line (87.5 percent on 8.9 attempts) has contributed to his elite offensive output.

Not only is SGA getting it done scoring-wise, he has also become one of the most well-rounded talents in the league. Apart from his scoring prowess, the Thunder superstar is also the primary table-setter for his team. Likewise, he also gets it done on the defensive end as his career-best 2.0 steals per game also leads the NBA.

However, it’s hard to ignore that Jokic is still widely-regarded as the best player in the world. Averaging 25.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 9.1 assists, he is still putting up god-like numbers this season to back that up.

Likewise, his impact on the Nuggets is second-to-none. His on-off numbers indicate that. On the year, the Nuggets are +11.4 whenever Jokic is on the floor, which translates to a 22.2-point difference when he is on the bench. Denver has an offensive rating of 123.4 with Jokic on the court, which would translate to the best in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic – 2023-24 Season On-Court Impact

Category
Team

ORTG
EFG%
ORTG
EFG%

On Court
123.4
58.2%
112.9
53.3%

Off Court
108.6
51.05
117.0
51.9%

On/Off Court Difference
+14.8
+.072
-4.1
+.014

That’s why it seems criminal not to give the Nuggets superstar his due. But unfortunately, the narrative does not favor his case and he may have to settle for second-place again, especially if the Thunder are able to secure the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference standings.

Much like Jokic, Doncic is also putting up insane numbers and is well on his way to winning his first scoring title. He just went on a historic stretch that saw him set the records for both most consecutive 30-point and 35-point triple-doubles.

But apart from Dallas’ worse record compared to OKC and Denver, Dončić also has a less impact defensively than both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic. Luka’s defense has been one of the knocks of his career.

Depending on how Dallas finishes the season, it’s likely that Dončić will end up in the top-three at most. Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo could also sneak in as one of the three finalists. But as it stands, this is looking more like a two-way race between Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic as the regular season winds down.

Nikola Jokić is the current frontrunner for MVP, but which NBA superstar has the best odds at pulling off an upset?

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert – Minnesota Timberwolves

Runners-up: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs) and Jarrett Allen (Cleveland Cavaliers)

San Antonio Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama is already gaining recognition as one of the best defensive players in the NBA. It’s hard to ignore his impact on that end of the floor, especially with his other-worldly 8-foot wingspan. But what’s more impressive is just how much ground he is able to cover with his length, which makes him arguably the most imposing defensive presence in the NBA. He’s already the best shot blocker in the NBA. Not only does he utilize his length well, he also possesses terrific timing on his swats.

Still, the Spurs are a bottom-10 defensive team, whereas the Minnesota Timberwolves sit atop the NBA in defensive rating and that is in large part due to Rudy Gobert.

Already a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Gobert is aiming to join Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace as the only four-time winners and the odds of him doing so are very high. Gobert may not be a popular name. In fact, he carries a bit of a sour reputation. But one cannot deny his immense impact on the defensive end.

Ranking 6th in the NBA with 2.1 blocks per game and 4th in defensive rebounds with 9.2 a night, the stats back up Gobert’s claim as the league’s top defender. Likewise, the Timberwolves give up just 107.4 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.

Already a known terrific rim protector, Gobert has also improved tremendously with his defense on the perimeter. He has worked hard on his footwork and his agility to become more capable of defending on switches and has done a better job of staying in front of guards on the outside.

Defensive Player of the Year Finalists Stats

Category
Rudy Gobert
Victor Wembanyama
Jarrett Allen

BPG
2.1
3.5
1.2

Contested shots/g
11.5
8.7
9.9

DRTG
106.2
111.4
109.5

DFG%
43.0
46.5%
48.8%

Lost in the shuffle of the DPOY race is Cleveland Cavaliers big man Jarrett Allen, who is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. The stats may not be there as he averages just 1.2 blocks per game, but Allen is responsible for anchoring the Cavaliers’ No. 3 ranked defense through the majority of the season.

Allen has been without his fellow twin tower in the front court with Evan Mobley missing a good chunk of the season. The Cavs being one of the best defensive teams in the league is a testament to Allen’s impact on that end of the floorl. On the season, Cleveland gives up 111.4 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass.

The NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year race has been hotly contested this season. These are the 2023-24 top contenders.

Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama – San Antonio Spurs

Runners-up: Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder) and Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets)

This year’s Rookie of the Year race may already be a foregone conclusion with San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama running away with the award. In any other season, Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren would have more of a chance. Heck, he would likely be a runaway winner himself. But with how special Wembanyama has been, especially since the All-Star break, last year’s No. 2 overall pick will unfortunately have to settle for second place.

Wembanyama is just playing in a different stratosphere as of late. It seems like the 20-year-old is either doing something no human being of his size has ever done before or achieving or breaking a historical feat every single week. In fact, just this weekend, he became the first player in NBA history to record 200+ blocks, 100+ three-pointers, and 75+ steals in a season.

Wemby has especially found his stride after the All-Star break. His numbers since then have been nothing short of absurd.

Rookie of the Year Finalists Stats

Category
Victor Wembanyama
Chet Holmgren
Brandon Miller

PTS
20.7
17.1
16.7

REB
10.4
8.0
4.2

AST
3.5
2.7
2.4

FG%
46.4
54.0
43.4

3PT%
32.3
38.9
36.8

Wembanyama may have left Holmgren in the dust of the Rookie of the Year race. But this shouldn’t discount how terrific of a debut campaign the Thunder center is having.

As much as Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the squad, the former Gonzaga star is one of the biggest reasons for Oklahoma City’s unexpected rise. Holmgren provides terrific two-way play for the Thunder. With a 7-foot-6 wingspan, Holmgren has given the Thunder a real defensive anchor with his elite rim protection and mature defensive instincts. On the other end, his ability to space the floor, post up, and finish at the rim makes him a dynamic option on offense.

His 16.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks all rank second behind Wembanyama among all rookies. Likewise, his 53.7 percent field goal shooting and 39.2 percent three-point shooting clips are both second among rookies averaging at least 20 minutes per game.

Not to be outdone, Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller is also proving why he deserved to go second overall after Wembanyama. He may have gotten off to a slow start, but the 21-year-old has found his stride as the season went along.

The former Alabama standout has suddenly been tasked to be the No. 1 scoring option for the Hornets with franchise star LaMelo Ball still nursing an ankle injury. Averaging 16.6 points per game, Miller has answered the call quite well with his production.

Miller likely won’t receive any 1st place votes for Rookie of the Year, but he should round out as the third finalist.

The race for NBA Rookie of the Year is closer than many would have expected.

Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers

Runners-up: Coby White (Chicago Bulls) and Jalen Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder)

The amount of talent in the NBA right now is probably at its highest and every year, a handful of players break out with newfound opportunities to showcase what they’re capable of. That’s exactly what Tyrese Maxey did after James Harden’s from the Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have barely felt Harden’s departure because of Maxey’s development into one of the top young stars in the NBA this season — and a well-deserved All-Star nod to boot.

While Maxey has benefitted from the opportunity left by Harden, he has further enhanced his Most Improved Player case with Joel Embiid’s injury. Averaging 26.1 points and 6.2 assists on 45/38/87 shooting splits.

A quick and electric guard, Maxey has done a terrific job keeping Philadelphia afloat with the reigning NBA MVP still sidelined. Philadelphia could have faltered without Embiid, but so far, they are still hanging on to the sixth and final outright playoff berth in the Eastern Conference and that is in large part due to Maxey’s stellar play.

While Maxey has already shown snippets that he could eventually become an All-Star even prior to this season, not a lot of people saw Coby White turn into a legitimate starting caliber point guard in the NBA. The seventh overall pick in 2019, White was seemingly starting to lose his place in the Bulls franchise after averaging career-lows across the board last season.

MIP Candidates Stats Comparison – 2022-23 vs. 2023-24

Players
Tyrese Maxey
Coby White
Jalen Williams

Categories
2022-23
2023-24
2022-23
2023-24
2022-23
2023-24

PPG
20.3
26.1
9.7
19.5
14.1
19.2

RPG
2.9
3.8
2.9
4.7
4.5
4.1

APG
3.5
6.2
2.8
5.2
3.3
4.5

FG%
48.1%
44.9%
44.3%
45.2%
52.1%
53.8%

3P%
43.4%
38.0%
37.2%
38.8%
35.6%
44.9%

But the 24-year-old stayed prepared. When the opportunity for a bigger role prepared itself as a result of Zach LaVine’s injury-riddled season, White became one of the top breakout candidates this season.

From averaging a career-low 9.7 points last year, the Chicago Bulls guard has doubled his production to 19.5 points per game, while shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 38.8 percent from three, both career-bests. His breakout campaign is one of the few bright spots in what has been a rollercoaster season for Chicago.

Sophomores rarely win MIP awards, since second-year players are highly expected to improve from their rookie campaigns. But last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Jalen Williams has earned his place as a potential finalist for this season’s Most Improved Player. Williams’ rise is one of the primary reasons why Oklahoma City has become one of the top teams in the Western Conference.

Averaging 19.2 points per game, the 22-year-old is the perfect secondary option for the Thunder behind MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With an already steady midrange jumper, Williams’ improvement from beyond the arc has added another dynamic to his still growing game. A 35.6 percent three-point shooter in his rookie year, Williams is knocking down nearly 45 percent of his threes this season.

Dropping out of the race, unfortunately, is Houston Rockets budding star Alperen Sengun. The Turkish big man was in the midst of a terrific third NBA season and was putting up outstanding performances after the All-Star break, none better than his career night against Spurs rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama.

However, Sengun suffered a scary leg injury last week. While he avoided disaster with a major injury, Sengun did sustain a severe ankle sprain, which has already ended the young star’s season.

Tyrese Maxey is leading an Embiid-less Sixers squad to the playoffs, but will it be enough to capture the MIP award?

Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk – Sacramento Kings

Runners-up: Norman Powell (LA Clippers) and Naz Reid (Minnesota Timberwolves)

The Sacramento Kings aren’t enjoying the same kind of success that they did a season ago. But top reserve Malik Monk is in the midst of his best year yet. It took a while for Monk to establish his niche in the NBA, but he has firmly found his stride in Sacramento and could be well on his way to earning the first major individual award of his career.

Sixth Man of the Year Candidates Stats

Category
Malik Monk
Norman Powell
Naz Reid

PPG
15.9
13.9
12.9

RPG
3.0
2.6
5.0

APG
5.3
1.1
1.2

FG%
45.0%
48.9%
48.2%

3P%
36.6%
43.5%
41.4%

Averaging career-highs of 15.9 points, Monk is a main reason why the Kings have the 9th most productive bench unit in the NBA. While he has always been known as a microwave scorer, the 6-foot-3 guard has evolved into a reliable all-around playmaker for Sacramento.

No other stat embodies his development this season than his career-best 5.3 assists per contest. Against the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night, he notched his eighth game this season with 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists off the bench, which is the most by a reserve in 30 years.

Another guard making waves off the bench in California is Norman Powell of the Los Angeles Clippers. Averaging 13.9 points, on 48.9 percent shooting from the field and a career-best 43.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc, Powell is in the midst of a steady and efficient campaign while helping the Clippers vie for a top-four seed in the Western Conference.

Naz Reid has also emerged as a candidate to win the Sixth Man of the Year award with his stellar play off the Timberwolves bench this season. Big men like Reid rarely win the Sixth Man of the Year award. Since 2001, only one true big man has won the trophy and that’s Montrezl Harrell back in 2020. Reid, however, isn’t the traditional big man.

Rather, his game is tailor-made for today’s NBA, which is why he has found so much success as a floor-spacing, pick-and-popping big. Averaging 12.9 points while shooting 41.9 percent from three, the 6-foot-9 big man can get hot in a hurry with his elite outside shooting. And he often gets the job in a steady and efficient manner.

Malik Monk is leading the race for the Sixth Man of the Year award, but Norman Powell is right on his tail.

Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault – Oklahoma City Thunder

Runners-up: Chris Finch (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Joe Mazzulla (Boston Celtics)

The Oklahoma City Thunder ended their 2022-23 season with a feeling that they were close to being true playoff contenders. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might have earned the All-NBA First Team nod, but it still looked like his real help had yet to arrive.

This season, the Thunder’s youth movement has stepped up. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are ideal pieces next to their star guard, while rotation players like Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort continue to play their roles well.

Oklahoma City Thunder – Year-to-Year Stats

Seasons
Winning%
PPG
FG%
DRTG

2021-22
.293
103.7
43.0%
111.7

2022-23
.488
117.5
46.5%
113.2

2023-24
.701
120.7
50.0%
113.7

Mark Daigneault has been leading his young squad in the best way possible, with his defenders even scoring at high levels. Sure, it helps to have a bonafide superstar like Gilgeous-Alexander carving out his place as the best two-way guard in the NBA, but a skilled coach makes everybody on the team better, not just one player. The 2023-24 season is truly when the Thunder’s floodgates opened.

It’s been a long time coming, but the Minnesota Timberwolves are finally a good team again. While head coach Chris Finch inherited a somewhat directionless team, he also found himself coaching the 2020 No. 1 overall pick in Anthony Edwards, a player who would then become foundational to the Wolves’ success in the 2023-24 season.

The Timberwolves have fallen out of the first seed amid Towns’ injury, but Finch has already managed to save a squad that started the season as broken as any team likely to blow up their roster at the trade deadline. Turning that into a contender could be enough to earn him the title of Coach of the Year.

The Boston Celtics are the best team in the league, and Joe Mazzulla has a case that he is at the center of it. In only his second season with Boston, Mazzulla has guided a star-studded roster to the best record in the NBA, and Boston has been the title favorite all season.

The expectations on Mazzulla’s shoulders were sky-high going into the season, and he has met them with ease. With a lack of experience at the helm of a team, Mazzulla doesn’t have a legacy to support, but he is easily one of the best coaches in the league.