Will Duncan Robinson finish in the top 10 in all-time 3-point makes in NBA history?

Earlier this week, Duncan Robinson became the fastest player in NBA history to make 1,000 3-pointers. It’s a record he had been chasing but is happy to see the pursuit end.

“I’d like to get to 1,000, and then we can put it to bed,” Robinson told me about the race to 1,000 on the Locked On Heat podcast earlier this season.

It can be stressful having people count every 3-pointer you make, but we’re not done yet. Sorry, Duncan, I’m here to keep the count alive. Now that he’s made 1,000, is Robinson on pace to become one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in league history? What would it take for him to crack the top 10 in all-time 3-pointers made?

Player

Career 3s made

Stephen Curry

3,691

2,973

James Harden

2,924

Damian Lillard

2,589

Reggie Miller

2,560

Kyle Korver

2,450

Klay Thompson

2,433

LeBron James

2,392

Vince Carter

2,290

Jason Terry

2,282

The biggest thing working against Robinson is his age. It’s easy to forget that Robinson is already 29 years old and will be 30 next month. Even though he made 1,000 3s in a record amount of games, he’s behind the pace in terms of age.

By the time Stephen Curry was 29, he made 2,129 3-pointers. Robinson is on pace to make about 1,044 career 3s by the end of this season. Sure, it’s unfair to compare Robinson to the greatest 3-point shooter of all time, but here’s how many 3s the top shooters in league history made by the end of their age-29 season.

Player

Career 3s made by age 29

Stephen Curry

2,129

James Harden

2,025

Klay Thompson (missed his age 29 and 30 seasons)

1,798

Damian Lillard

1,776

Ray Allen

1,486

LeBron James

1,136

Jason Terry

1,084

Duncan Robinson

1,044

Reggie Miller

1,035

Kyle Korver

1,016

Vince Carter

787

Robinson is on pace compared to the rest of the top-10 3-point shooters in league history. But one of the drivers is longevity. Allen, James, Terry, Miller, Korver and Carter all played into their late 30s or early 40s. Will Robinson play that long? Shooters tend to stick in the league for a while, so it’s possible.

To crack the target number (2,282 career 3s made), Robinson would have to maintain his pace of about 200 made 3s per season for six-to-seven seasons – or every year until he’s 36. Playing another few years as a reserve 3-point specialist like Terry and Korver did could help, too.

As Robinson knows, the NBA is a tough league. Nothing is promised. Robinson was out of the rotation for most of last season before making the necessary improvements to resuscitate his career. Now he’s on pace to become one of the most prolific shooters in league history.

Finishing his career in the top 10 in all-time 3s made will mean extending a career that, not that long ago, looked like it was nearly over.