Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscars 2024 Chances Look To Be Completely Dead Now

Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscars 2024 Chances Look To Be Completely Dead Now

With the Golden Globes ceremony outcomes and recent SAG Awards nominations announcement, Leonardo DiCaprio’s chances at the Oscars are few.

Summary

DiCaprio’s chances at winning an Oscar for his role in Killers of the Flower Moon have significantly narrowed.

Leonardo DiCaprio’s role as Ernest Burkhart in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon might have been considered Oscar-worthy initially, but the chances of that happening have narrowed significantly now.

Killers of the Flower Moon reunites Robert De Niro and DiCaprio after starring together in 1993’s This Boy’s Life and 1996’s Marvin’s Room. Interestingly, besides being two of the best actors in movie history, they are Scorsese’s two favorite actors working together for the first time in a movie directed by Scorsese himself. Taking that into consideration, and also keeping in mind the quality of the film, initially, expectations were high of DiCaprio having a chance at his second Oscar ever.

Killers of the Flower Moon was released on October 20th, 2024, and unlike other big releases such as Barbie and Oppenheimer, which continue to be a trend almost six months after their respective releases, its momentum was rather short.

Despite the film’s incredible quality, displayed both through its direction and through the cast, the 2024 Golden Globes ceremony seems to indicate a clear tendency toward Nolan’s masterpiece. Furthermore, the recent awards nominations announcement is bad news for Leo DiCaprio and his chances at the Academy Awards.

Leonardo DiCaprio’s SAG Awards Snub Makes Winning Best Actor At 2024 Oscars Very Unlikely

The SAG Awards nominations have been announced, and Leonardo DiCaprio’s absence on the list is one of the most surprising things. The SAG Awards were founded in 1995, so they have significantly less history than the Academy Awards. However, keeping in mind that these are the awards delivered by the Actors Guild, their importance, and their correlation with the Oscars’ acting categories is remarkable.

Only six times since 1995, when the first SAG Awards ceremony was held, the winner of the Male Actor in a Leading Role at the SAGs did not win the Oscar that same year. DiCaprio’s absence from the list is surely a bad sign, then.

Even though the Male Actor in a Leading Role category in both awards is frequently the same, there have been several times in which an actor who didn’t get a nomination at the SAGs then received an Oscar nomination.

So, Leonardo DiCaprio’s chances of getting nominated are less than if he was nominated for a SAG, but not dead at all. However, there has never been an actor to win the Oscar Best Actor category without a previous SAG nomination. In other words, DiCaprio will set a milestone if he wins the Oscar, but, at the same time, that stat pretty much kills his chances of winning.

What Happened To Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscars 2024 Chances?

Early Oscar 2024 predictions surely included Leonardo DiCaprio among the strongest contenders for the Lead Actor award. However, a couple of reasons might explain why his momentum has gradually diminished to the point of even doubting a nomination. In the first place, as it was previously established, Oppenheimer‘s extended momentum, which had materialized at the recent Golden Globes ceremony and has been extended to lead actor Cillian Murphy, might have overshadowed DiCaprio’s performance.

Secondly, during the last months of movie promotion, DiCaprio remained on the sidelines and allowed Killers of the Flower Moon‘s female lead, Lily Gladstone, to draw more attention during the awards season.

In addition to this, a particular tendency in this year’s SAG awards nominations might as well extend to the Oscar nominations. Every actor nominated in the Best Actor in a Leading Role category could possibly win his first SAG award ever. Taking that into consideration, a tendency to give more importance to new winners over old-timers could also mean higher chances for his female partner and, on the contrary, fewer opportunities for Leonardo DiCaprio, who has a total of 5 nominations and a win.

Who Will Win Best Actor At The Oscars 2024?

While Paul Giamatti’s win for The Holdovers at the Golden Globes and his recent SAG nomination surely make him a strong contender for the Oscar, performances in a more comedy-related tone tend to be overlooked by the Academy.

In addition to this, Bradley Cooper’s brilliant performance in Maestro, his second film as a director, might as well take the award with a rather surprising outcome. However, Oscar 2024 predictions for Lead Actor seem to indicate that Cillian Murphy, who has gained massive fame for his role as Tommy Shelby in Peaky Blinders, will extend his success to the film industry and win his first Oscar for his amazing performance in Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

Killers of the Flower Moon will be available Friday, January 12th, on Apple TV+.