The opening weekend forecast for Aquaman 2 predicts a range less than what The Marvels collected

Jason Momoa’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is finally hitting theaters this Christmas, but early predictions paint a bleak picture for its box office. According to the predictions, the opening weekend collection of the movie is projected to be $32-$42 million. This range is lower than The Marvels’ opening of $47 million, which is not a good sign considering the Marvel film struggles to recoup its production budget.

Aquaman 2 has a production budget of $205 million, which makes the predictions worse. Interestingly, the first Aquaman movie was a surprise hit in 2018, grossing $1.152 billion and becoming the highest-grossing film in the DCEU.

Jason Momoa’s Aquaman 2 Will Suffer A Fate Lot Worse Than The Marvels

Jason Momoa in Aquaman and The Lost Kingdom
According to Box Office Pro, the long-range tracking predictions of the Jason Momoa starrer, Aquaman 2, fall between $32-$42 million. The film’s domestic total is expected to range from $105 million to $168 million. Earlier, the site predicted an opening weekend gross of $50-$75 million for The Marvels, however, the movie ended up grossing only $47 million.

The opening show reviews of The Marvels were not so great (not so bad either), which could have further brought down the numbers for the film. The same or worse can happen with Aquaman 2, given that the film reportedly underwent seven test screenings, most of them getting poor test scores. The crew had to reshoot for an additional 7-8 days to change several scenes from the movie.

One day into sample market tracking, the presales of the film are outpacing Shazam! Fury of the Gods by 25 percent but lagging 62 percent behind Black Adam. Despite these unfavorable comparisons, some factors may work in the film’s favor. For one, this Christmas lacks any other major releases and the film is in a position to draw all the holiday audiences, provided word of mouth is surprisingly positive.

Other Reasons For Aquaman 2’s Poor Start At The Box Office

Jason Momoa in Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Aquaman 2 was marred by several issues, the most important of which was the scrapping of the universe after this film. The same reason also affected another DC release of this year, Blue Beetle, which despite getting positive reviews bombed at the box office. The underwhelming performances of recent DCEU releases, including Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and The Flash, also added to the overall struggles.

The biggest negative publicity to the film came in the form of the Depp v. Heard defamation case which involved Aquaman lead actress Amber Heard. Despite calls for her removal, the studio decided to retain her but cut out significant portions of her role in the film. One other factor, which was addressed by DC studio head James Gunn himself, was the superhero fatigue. Gunn mainly cited the issue with stories, which have become all too familiar to the audience.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom aims to overcome these challenges with a great storyline (hopefully), when it releases in theaters on December 22, 2023.